Mitt’s a Hit in the Hawkeye Cauceye

Mitt Romney is without a doubt a big winner in last nights (way to late) caucus in Iowa. Here’s why. In 2008 Romney spent a gross amount of money in Iowa and appeared to have the upper hand going into the final week only to place a poor distant second. This time around Mitt Spent considerably less money and eked out a first place finish. His most ardent opponent Newt Gingrich placed a very sorry fourth. So Mitt spends less money and less time and wins.

Rick Santorum who has become the anti-Romney social conservative candidate comes in a very close second to Romney in last night’s photo finish. However Santorum will not have the money or structure to go the distance against Romney. Let’s look at history the same thing happened to Mike Huckabee just four years ago. It is close to impossible to build a future off just one win. Didn’t say it couldn’t be done I said it was close to impossible. Remember Santorum isn’t even on the ballot in some upcoming states.

Now let’s take Ron Paul who I see as the only other viable choice to Romney. He runs well and then drops to third in Iowa. That’s ok he can still show well in the NH primary where he is in a distant second with 17% and could honestly pull off a win in NV. But the truth is Ron Paul will not be the nominee. He has a great message and has done much better than in ’08 but he doesn’t have what I will call the gravitas, if you will, to convince most mainstream voters.

What about Newt you say? He is finished. It doesn’t matter what happens from now he will implode, sooner or later. He is already attacking Romney in NH which is just plain stupid. 73% of Romney’s 43% of support in NH say they will most certainly vote for him regardless. It’s like a girl who is in love with a guy and everyone tells her he is bad, it doesn’t matter what proof they show her because she is in love. Love covers a multitude.

Now you can take my musings and agree or disagree, or agree to disagree. I am as you may have noticed not on Fox News this morning giving these predictions. The reason for that is mostly because they get up way to early on Fox and also because they didn’t ask me.

I am also slightly bitter to those people in the last caucus to be counted last night as I am grumpy this morning from staying up so late. No matter. We are well on our way to having a candidate to beat Obama in November which, by the way, is our goal in case you forgot.

Micah Cavanaugh

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